Herr Oberst (herr_0berst) wrote,
Herr Oberst

о сохранении спокойствия во времена нестабильности

Те, кому интересно и/или актуально, вероятно заметили, что фондовые рынки в "этой стране"™ последние дни неслабо лихорадило (и продолжает).

Граждане, что называется, волнуются. По этому поводу держатели сбережений граждан шлют оным гражданам (в моём во всяком случае лице) обстоятельные письма, где говорится, что всё нормально просто общество падает прослойкой вниз и сейчас самое главное -- это не рыпаться и не забирать у них своих денег.

А потом, как в 2009-м, будут слать письма с полезными советами о том, как восстановить просевшие на треть сбережения, типа «не ходите в кофейни -- варите кофе сами и наливайте в термос», «не ходите в кино -- качайте с торрентов берите диск в прокат и смотрите дома».

Our Perspective on the Recent Market Volatility

After an extended period of relatively calm trading, U.S. equity markets dropped sharply last week with the S&P 500 retreating 5.8%. On Monday, global markets plunged sharply again before rebounding from the morning lows. Taking a longer view, the S&P 500 is down slightly from where it was 12 months ago. International equity markets, particularly Asia, and most commodities also participated in the recent decline. Coming after a period of unusually low volatility, the sudden shift in market sentiment caught many investors by surprise. In reaction to the stress in equity markets, government bond prices increased with a corresponding drop in interest rates. Given these events, investors are understandably concerned about the financial health and wellbeing of their retirement portfolios.

So what is going on?

There has been a sudden shift in investor expectations about future global growth. For the past few years, the global economy has been driven by growth coming from the U.S. and China. While the U.S. economy continues to do reasonably well, China has been experiencing a slowdown that is impacting other economies around the world. Concerns about China’s growth intensified when the Chinese government allowed a surprise devaluation of the yuan currency. Adding to the uncertainty, oil prices have dropped dramatically putting pressure on energy companies. Falling energy and commodity prices imply that inflation remains below the desired rate of 2% targeted by the Federal Reserve, muddying the outlook for anticipated increases in the Federal Funds rate. The net impact of these recent developments in global markets is a big increase in uncertainty.

The Financial Engines perspective

It is helpful to keep in mind that downturns like that experienced last week are actually quite common in financial markets. Since 1946, the S&P 500 has dropped by 5% to 10% about sixty times, or once per year on average. Sometimes the downturns are larger, but on average markets have tended to recover their losses within a few months. Dramatic downturns like we experienced in 2008/2009 are much rarer.

We understand that sudden turns in the market can be unnerving to retirement investors. Market history teaches us that investor sentiment can change quickly and without warning. But this goes in both directions. Markets can turn up when you least expect it. Being out of the market when sentiment turns can be quite damaging to your long-term returns. To time the market, you must be correct twice - once to get out of the market at the right time, and again to get back in time to avoid missing a rally. It is almost impossible to time both of these decisions correctly. You are much better off pursuing a consistent strategy of a diversified portfolio in times when markets are volatile.

While no one knows the future, especially in these uncertain times, maintaining a long-term focus, with a balanced mix of equities, both domestic and international, risk adjusted for age, remains the best way to achieve your retirement goals.

If you are nearing retirement and the experiences of past market downturns are fresh in your mind, acting impulsively is probably not the best course of action. Instead, please consider reviewing your total retirement income picture, not just risk and allocation of your portfolio, but also including future expected income streams such as a pension or Social Security. Investment Advisor Representatives are ready to help you.

What to do during market volatility? Perhaps nothing.

If you're watching the recent market correction and wondering what to do, consider learning how to cope with volatility instead of changing your financial plan.

Often, the wisest thing to do during periods of extreme market volatility is to stick with the investment plan that you've already devised, notes Bill McNabb, Vanguard's chairman and CEO. "Equity markets have reaped sizable gains over the past six years. Such setbacks, while unnerving, are inevitable," he says.

A "do nothing" prescription might be tough to swallow if you've been caught off-guard by recent volatility. But Mr. McNabb points out that no action is an active decision, and can be the right decision for reaching long-term financial goals.

Here are a few simple rules to help you through the current feverish reaction.

Rule #1: Recognize that volatility and periodic corrections are common in equity markets.

The key to getting through unexpected turbulence is to understand that swings in the financial market are normal—and relatively insignificant over the long haul. The best approach to protect portfolios is to diversify among a broad mix of global stocks and high-quality bonds so that you are better poised to buffer the declines in the equity market.

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index is down about three percentage points and down slightly on a year-over-year basis.1 Since the bottom of the global financial crisis in 2009, the index had enjoyed the second-largest bull market in U.S. history—an extraordinary run that may help put current concerns in perspective.

"We're coming off an extremely placid period in markets. So the recent spike in volatility is going to feel a lot worse," says Mr. McNabb.

Rule #2: Tune out the noise, and remove emotion from investing.

Seeing the same story at the top of every news site you visit, as well as seeing related portfolio fluctuations, is likely to worry you more than it should.

If you're a long-term investor, resist the urge to make drastic changes to your investment plans in reaction to market moves. You may find what's driving the overreaction in markets is nothing more than speculation.

Making shifts to your portfolio in hopes of avoiding a loss or finding a gain rarely works long-term. Investors who panicked and dumped stock holdings in 2008 and 2009, believing they could get back in when "the coast was clear," likely suffered equity losses without the benefit of fully participating in the recovery. Vanguard research finds that a buy-and-hold approach outperformed a performance-chasing strategy by 2.8% per year on average during the 10-year period analyzed.

Also, try not to look at your accounts every day. It's unnecessary and may do more harm than good. Remember that portfolio changes, aside from routine rebalancing, can result in significant capital gains. And don't forget you need to know when to jump out of the market and then get back in—decisions few investors can and should tackle.

Rule #3: Make volatility work for you.

Save more, and continue to invest regularly. Boosting savings is important to your long-term financial goals. We believe market returns will be muted over the next few years; therefore, stick to your investing principles and avoid getting caught up in the market.

If you invest regularly through payroll deduction, an automatic investment plan, or a target-date fund, you're putting the market's natural volatility to work for you. Continue making contributions to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging. Buying a fixed dollar amount on a regular schedule offers opportunities to buy low during market dips. Over time, regular contributions can help reduce the average price you pay for your fund shares.2

The inaction plan

If your portfolio is broadly diversified and has the appropriate balance for your financial goals, time horizon, and risk comfort level, sticking with it is a wise move.

"Because no one knows what the future holds, a globally diversified strategy can be more advantageous than shifting too much in any direction," says Mr. McNabb. "You can resist the temptation and save yourself the stress by tuning out the noise. It's okay to ignore volatility—that's part of the plan."

1 Performance calculation is based on S&P 500 values (2058.90 on 12/31/14; 1970.89 on 8/21/15; 1992.37 on 8/21/14; 676.53 on 3/9/09).

2 Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee that your investments will make a profit, nor does it protect you against losses when stock or bond prices are falling. You should consider whether you would be willing to continue investing during a long downturn in the market, because dollar-cost averaging involves making continuous investments regardless of fluctuating price levels.

Tags: finance, usa

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